The “New Normal” is Not Coming

By Steven K. Haught, MBA

Two-thirds of Americans do not expect their daily lives to return to normal for at least six months, and as states reopen, three-quarters are concerned that a second wave of coronavirus cases will emerge… a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.  So maybe six months will be twelve or eighteen months or longer?

What is predictable these days? What is normal?  Normal is far more subjective than we want to accept. There are behaviors that are considered necessary given the current pandemic situation and depending on how long this lasts… those protective behaviors will be part of our cultural,  the social and economic normal, or maybe everything is just abnormal.

Business certainly has no grasp of a “normal” and may not find a definition anytime soon.  I cringe at the use of the terms “New Normal” as it suggests raising or lowering the bar to explain and justify what is happening.  

An optimistic business strategy is nearly impossible for executives to construct given the multitude of uncertainties and unpredictable future.  Any current 2020 business plan for small to medium sized businesses is certainly out the window.

Maybe the next strategy for strategic thinkers is to stop talking about the “new normal” and start embracing the “no normal.”  What does that mean exactly?

In the pre-COVID business world, a 90-100-day strategy was considered short-term and many aspects of the short-term strategy were framed by repeatable and sustainable factors that would extend “on plan” performance to six months, one year and beyond.

Today, as we move through a continuous commercial and personal “present,” with nothing remotely stable, a single day might be the short-term planning framework for all intents and purposes.  Thinking past just 100 hours is simply wishful thinking. 

The pandemic has done more to business and commerce than just stop it in its tracks.  It’s turned every part of the world’s economic engine upside-down and we find ourselves spending time in useless strategic visioning if we are thinking past one to five days.

Other recessions damaged momentum, slowing revenue growth, but we could confidently say that the “strategy” was strong, solid, and will continue to be the foundation of a one to five year plan.  That was in the past, this time it will be radically different.  We cannot hope that once the dust of the economic disruptions settle, things will get back to normal.  Not now, not soon and maybe never again will we see the pre-pandemic levels of economic growth.

COVID-19 has exploded the myths we used to comfort ourselves with and challenged not just institutional wisdom but the wisdom of institutional thinking. 

Even the time-honored business processes of “Plan, Make, Source, Deliver” have been blown to bits. Today, it makes more sense to think in terms of “Deliver, Source, Make, Plan.”  Add to that… do it quickly before something changes!

We have been planning first for so long, it is hard to think of planning as the last step, a record of actions taken or dismissed.   Planning for the foreseeable future will be more reactionary to sudden events that disrupt business continuity.

But, in a world where a week sometimes feels like months, and we are constantly bombarded by new bits of information that further disrupt our trusted realities, our planning, our grand visions and strategies are now all but useless.  It’s a waste of time and energy to think and plan past immediate term survival.

If consumers can’t plan something we should be able to take-for-granted, like Memorial Day weekend, how can businesses think past their own desperate challenges and effectively address the still-undetermined needs to build a future for revenue growth?

We're no longer chess grandmasters, but more like two bored resort guests, killing time by playing an endless series of checker games neither one cares about. Sure, there are lessons to be learned, the first of which is that the last game's lessons won't help much when it comes to the next game. In our “no normal” world, traditional annual planning cycles, quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year, and other traditional metrics, have become obsolete—at best—replaced with the mantra “Now and Next.”

“Winning” looks more like making a series of tactical moves after receiving cash from a government loan or stimulus—postponing the inevitable second or third round of layoffs, if something miraculous doesn’t happen quickly.

Business is caught in what feels like a perpetual time-loop, where everything you do or plan is no longer part of an effective strategy propelled by the right tactical moves, but a series of repeating non-productive events you cannot control and for the near to mid-term future… cannot escape.

Today’s only solution to survival planning and tactical market response will be “micro-strategies” created day-to-day, week-to-week.

Instead of trying to build value by attempting to offer everything to everyone, it might be best to adopt a “care” or “concierge” strategy for the top 5 to 10 percent of your clients/customers.  Those clients most likely to survive and those you can partner with in symbiotic co-dependance for mutual benefit.

Without the luxury of grand thinking about “trends,” we have to be able to react to the most nuanced daily indicators. Success requires making the right choices for today, and then forgetting what we’ve learned so we can be fully open to tomorrow’s challenges.  "Tomorrow" is literally 24 hours away, no longer the trusted metaphor for the future.

Our immediate need is the ability to shift mindsets, not create or revise detailed five-year strategic plans. That’s why even the most dedicated business planners, unaccustomed as they are to immediate action instead of longer-term reaction, are paralyzed.

As we move through this “touchless period” toward frictionless commerce, we see traditional business barriers coming down, one hurdle at a time. No more need to enter a store or restaurant, you will eat your meal somewhere else. No more need for “hands on” service, unless of course those hands are wearing latex gloves. A “Now and Next” mindset creates the type of acceleration only dreamed of just two months ago.

It’s hard to build momentum or competitive advantage in a world defined by 100-hour increments, but we have an opportunity to “open source” the future, short as it may be, together. 

Yesterday... that would have been an insane idea, but in the world of the “no normal,” what seemed crazy now seems more clear and possible. 

The challenge for business leaders has shifted from making sure they have a durable strategy, to making certain they have a triage organizational model, capable of adjusting quite literally to whatever happens next.

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