Lead with Certainty in Uncertain Times

How Can You Be So Sure of What You Are Doing?

When times become uncertain, like now, people look for leaders who seem to know what to do.  Those who speak with certainty tend to attract those who are less sure.

But not everyone who acts in convincing ways, really knows what they are doing, and misplaced confidence could lead to deeper troubles.

How can we tell what type of leader we should follow?  More importantly, as leaders how can we lead with certainty when facing the unknown? 

Let’s say a car load of people are driving home, a driver and three other passengers,  along the same route always taken.  About half way home, at a familiar four-way intersection, you come upon an unexpected sign:  Road Closed.  Uncertainty has just entered your mental calculator.

In the drivers seat is a leader.  He or she has to decide what to do, and then the passengers have to decide whether or not to follow the plan.

Everyone just wants to get home, so what you are looking for is confident direction.  It would be nice if the leader would just immediately say…  “Turn left,” “Turn right,” or even “Ignore that sign and go around it.”

Then all the passengers have to do is go along for the next leg of our journey home.  So long as the leader is right, everyone will get home in time for dinner.  But if he or she is wrong, you could go careening off the road where a bridge used to be.

Here’s the thing:  experience tells us that even though a leader may act confident, they might not have a clue about what lies ahead.

Advice to Leader — Don’t be so sure about what lies ahead. For example, there’s a kind of cognitive bias called the Dunning-Kruger effect (look it up).  The general idea is that people who aren’t very good at something tend to overestimate their ability to do it.   The least competent or capable people tend to be the most overconfident.

That may be why 73% of automobile drivers consider themselves to be better than average, yet 90% of crashes involve human error.  The worst of us don’t see that we might be part of the problem.

I think that concept extends beyond physical skills.  There’s a great quote attributed to Aristotle: The more you know, the more you know you don’t know. - Aristotle

The converse of Aristotle’s observation is essentially,  “The less you know, the more you think you know.”  Dunning-Krueger.

So when someone claims to be categorically certain about something, it may sound reassuring, and we may be tempted to follow.  But it might also be a good idea to pause and ask ourselves, how can they be so sure?

Is it because they truly know what they are doing?  Or could it be because they don’t know enough to know any better? And how can we tell the difference?

Advice to Leader and Followers —  A few simple questions can help us distinguish between confident ignorance and sure certainty.  And we can use these as a guide for our own actions to help others feel confident in our ability to lead with certainty during uncertain times.

Acknowledge uncertainty. Do they act as if they know everything, or are they willing to admit they might not have all the answers? Beware of people who claim to know exactly what to do in uncertain times.  The leaders who can be trusted are those who are willing to publicly recognize the limits of their knowledge.

Be humble. Is it about “me” or “we?”  If a leaders words and actions seem to be more about protecting status or building ego, think twice about what they are saying, telling you to do.  Their priority systems may be skewed towards their personal interests and their minds may be closed to the best courses of action.

Coming from a place of humility opens the door that enables us to learn, and helps us see the best course of action for the team.  The goal is not to be the person who was right, it’s to find the answer that is right. Humility will open your mind to learning in the same way that ego will stunt your growth. 

Ask questions. Are they shouting orders or asking questions?  Jumping into action before truly understanding the problem is a recipe for trouble.  Good leaders use available time to ask questions that help them understand the problem they face before making decisions about what to do.  It isn't that they cannot find the solution. It is that they cannot see the problem because they fail to ask enough questions to understand the dimensions of the challenge. 

Share knowledge. Are they just saying, “Trust me,” or are they telling you what they know?  Confident leaders are willing to share what they know, and encourage others to share their knowledge so that the whole team benefits from the collective wisdom.  Leaders seek knowledge symmetry, not asymmetry.

Don’t guarantee anything. Do they claim to know the outcome, or are they willing to share their doubts?  We may prefer to hear that “everything is going to be OK,” but what we deserve from our leaders is unvarnished reality.  Winston Churchill led Great Britain through the darkest days of World War II.  He didn’t pretend everything was going to be OK; he didn’t even guarantee that Britain would survive the war.  He leveled with his people and trusted them with the truth, as he said…  “I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat.” Winston Churchill

The answers to these questions will help followers decide if you should follow someone, and how a leader can lead more effectively in uncertain times.

But there are some times when we simply must lead with certainty no matter what is happening.  

When certainty is required in times of “uncertainty” leaders have to be decisive in choices and actions.  If the house is on fire, whether people exit the house through the back door or the front is less important than just getting out of the house.  No meeting for consensus is needed. When time is compressed and urgent, inaction is a sure path to disaster. Generally doing something, anything, is better than doing nothing or delaying action because of rules or protocols.  Make a decision, even an imperfect one, and carry it out boldly and quickly.

Are you an expert?  If you as a leader really are the smartest person in the room in a specific area, then this is a good time to spread that confidence by sharing what you know.  Use the available time to explain and educate teammates on what gives us that certainty and why a given course of action is the best.  But don’t forget to stay humble.  Expertise in one area does not confer expertise in all areas.

When values are on the line, there can be no compromise.  When ethical issues arise, don’t hesitate to side with those ethical standards.  If we really believe in the corporate values, then not only do you need to live by them, but everyone else needs to see you as leading by those standards. The longer a poor ethical option remains on the table, or even brought forward for discussion, the more our teammates may view a compromise as a viable alternative, and the faster we'll find ourselves driving towards the cliff.

The Takeaway for Leaders — Back in the car at that intersection with the “road closed sign” you are a passenger in the backseat watching the driver, your leader, asking yourself these questions…  If he’s falsely confident, the answers to my urgent questions will help me see through the smoke screen.

If he humbly admits he’s not certain, he or she will have my respect.  If he asks me what I know, checks the map and GPS, contacts friends to see what they know and can share, and doesn’t make any sweeping promises about things he can’t control, I’ll be more inclined to listen and to follow.

And then, after the leader has done these kinds of things, if he or she says with certainty, “Let’s take this left.  I don’t know if the traffic will be any worse or the road any better, but that looks like the best choice for us based on what we know” …you will confidently follow that leader.

Forge Ahead... Lead with Humility!